Novo Nordisk has lowered its full-year sales and profit guidance for 2025, citing headwinds from compounded versions of its flagship obesity and diabetes medications in the United States.
The Danish pharmaceutical company now anticipates full-year sales growth of 13% to 21% at constant exchange rates, down from the previously forecast 16% to 24%. Operating profit growth expectations were similarly revised, from a range of 19% to 27% to a reduced range of 16% to 24%.
The company’s blockbuster GLP-1 drugs—marketed as Wegovy for weight loss and Ozempic for type 2 diabetes—have faced growing competition from US compounding pharmacies. These pharmacies had been permitted by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to produce alternative versions due to a shortage of the approved drugs. However, the FDA has recently removed semaglutide injections from its drug shortage list, requiring compounders to halt distribution by May 22.
Sales of Wegovy jumped 83% year-over-year at constant exchange rates to 17.36 billion Danish kroner ($2.65 billion), although this fell short of the 18.5 billion kroner forecast by analysts. Meanwhile, Ozempic sales grew 15% to 32.72 billion kroner, slightly exceeding expectations.
Despite the downward revision in guidance, Novo Nordisk reported a first-quarter net profit of 29.03 billion kroner ($4.4 billion), ahead of the 27.8 billion kroner forecast in a recent analysts’ poll. Overall revenues increased 18% to 78.09 billion kroner.
CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen attributed the lowered outlook to a “rapid expansion of compounding in the US” but expressed optimism about the remainder of the year as compounded competition diminishes.
“Compounders took a part of our business away,” Jørgensen said. “We now expect that compounding will be knocked off… and we get that business growth going forward.”
Investors responded positively to the company’s outlook for the second half of the year. Shares in Novo Nordisk rose as much as 6.7% on Wednesday, settling to a 4.6% gain by early afternoon in London.
Looking to recover market share, Novo Nordisk is expanding access to its branded treatments through direct-to-consumer services and new partnerships with telehealth companies, including Hims & Hers Health, Ro, and LifeMD. In addition, CVS Health recently announced that its pharmacy benefit manager, Caremark, will offer exclusive coverage for Wegovy, excluding competitors.
Novo Nordisk also reaffirmed its long-term innovation plans, including a filing for regulatory approval of its next-generation obesity candidate CagriSema in early 2026, and the pending approval of an oral version of semaglutide, which would be the first oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity if approved.
As competitors such as Eli Lilly, Roche, AstraZeneca, and AbbVie advance their own obesity drug candidates, Novo Nordisk’s performance in the coming quarters will be closely watched.
“The summer will be critical,” said Emily Field, head of European pharmaceutical research at Barclays. “Either prescriptions return, or the market may assume competitors like Lilly will dominate going forward.”
With input from the Wall Street Journal and CNBC.
