Stocks hover at record highs as softer jobs data keeps Fed-cut hopes alive

Wall Street mostly treaded water Tuesday, hanging near all-time highs after another sign the labor market is losing steam — just not (yet) collapsing.

The S&P 500 inched up about 0.1%, the Dow added roughly 106 points (0.2%), and the Nasdaq ticked 0.1% higher, all hovering around record territory set over the past week.

Traders are banking on a slowdown deep enough to nudge the Fed into cutting rates, without tipping the economy into recession. Fueling that view: a government revision showing the US added 911,000 fewer jobs from April 2024 through March 2025 than first reported — about 0.6% of employment. Rate-cut bets for next week stayed firm, though markets trimmed odds of a bigger-than-usual move, lifting Treasury yields slightly (10-year up to ~4.08% from 4.05%).

Two more tests land midweek: producer prices Wednesday and consumer inflation Thursday. Hot prints could cramp the Fed’s flexibility.

Movers and shakers

• UnitedHealth jumped ~7.8% after telling investors it’s sticking with its 2025 profit outlook, easing some fears about medical-cost inflation.
• Nebius Group surged ~44% on a GPU-services deal with Microsoft worth $17.4–$19.4B through 2031; Microsoft edged up ~0.1%.
• Fox fell ~5.7% after the Murdoch family set a succession deal that keeps the company’s direction intact under Lachlan Murdoch.
• Apple slipped ~0.8% ahead of its iPhone reveal, with trade tensions adding price-tag uncertainty.
• Energy stocks firmed as oil rose; housing stocks wobbled after a multi-day run. Albemarle sank on signs lithium supply worries are easing.

Investors have already pushed benchmarks to records on the “just-right” slowdown narrative. With the labor market clearly cooler and inflation still sticky above 2%, the path the Fed chooses — a standard 25 bp cut now and a measured pace thereafter — is the needle markets want threaded. One stumble (hot inflation or a sharper jobs slide) could jolt the soft-landing story.

With input from Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, and AP.