Cheap Flights Are Fading as Jet Fuel Costs Surge – Even If Fares Haven’t Fully Caught Up Yet

CNN and the Independent contributed to this report.

Airfares haven’t exploded – yet. But the pressure is building fast.

Behind the scenes, jet fuel prices have roughly doubled in the past two months, squeezing airlines at a time when demand for travel is still going strong. That kind of spike doesn’t stay hidden for long.

So far, ticket prices have only crept up modestly. According to travel platform Hopper, summer flights are already about 10% more expensive than they were, with higher fuel costs starting to filter through.

Give it a little time, and the shift could be a lot more noticeable.

Fuel is one of the biggest expenses airlines deal with, often making up 20% to 30% of their total costs. And right now, that bill is ballooning. Delta Air Lines said it spent $400 million more on fuel in March compared to a year ago. Over at United Airlines, CEO Scott Kirby warned that if prices stay where they are, the airline could be staring down an extra $11 billion in costs this year.

To cover that entirely through ticket prices, fares would need to jump around 20%. That’s not happening – not without scaring off travelers.

Airlines know the limits. Push prices too high, and people stop flying. Or they drive instead.

So they’re getting creative.

Fees are going up. United Airlines has already raised baggage charges, adding $10 for first and second checked bags and $50 for a third. JetBlue followed with its own $10 bump, pointing to rising operating costs. Others are expected to fall in line.

Then there’s the quiet trimming of flight schedules.

United plans to cut about 5% of its capacity over the next six months, including during the busy summer season. Fewer flights, especially the cheaper, less popular ones – think midweek departures or overnight “redeyes” – mean fewer bargains for travelers and less flexibility overall.

That squeeze can push prices higher without airlines having to officially hike fares across the board.

And demand isn’t easing. If anything, it’s holding up better than expected. Some airlines have reported record booking days even after the spike in fuel costs, suggesting travelers are still willing to pay – at least for now.

Ironically, rising gas prices could be helping airlines. With fuel at the pump climbing above $4 a gallon, long road trips are getting pricier, nudging some travelers back toward flying.

Executives are watching closely. Delta’s CEO has said the industry is in a position to recover some of those fuel costs, but history suggests it takes a couple of months for price increases to fully show up in ticket data.

There’s a catch, though. If fuel keeps climbing and starts dragging down the broader economy, demand could crack. That would make it harder for airlines to keep raising prices.

And even if oil prices cool off later, don’t expect ticket prices to snap back quickly. Once fares move up, they tend to stick – especially if planes are still filling up.

For travelers, the message is simple: the era of ultra-cheap flights isn’t disappearing overnight, but it’s getting harder to find.