Jet Fuel Squeeze Is Set to Push Summer Airfares Higher, Aviation Chief Warns

The Guardian, Fortune, Reuters contributed to this report.

Europe’s summer travel season is heading for a pricier finish, and Willie Walsh says there is not much airlines can do about it.

The head of the International Air Transport Association said fare increases are “inevitable” as jet fuel costs stay high, even if some carriers are trying to trim prices in the short term. The former British Airways boss said airlines cannot keep eating the extra cost forever, especially with fuel markets still rattled by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Walsh tried to cool fears of a full-blown summer travel meltdown. He said there is no reason to panic and does not expect broad flight cancellations. But cheaper tickets? That is another story.

“Over time it’s inevitable that the high price of oil will be reflected in higher ticket prices,” he said.

The timing is awkward. Summer is when airlines usually burn through more fuel anyway, with July and August demand often running about 25% above March levels. If alternative supplies do not show up fast enough, Walsh warned, shortages could still bite in peak season.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, he said, the damage would not vanish overnight. The ripple effects could hang around into 2027.

That is the part airlines and governments are trying to manage now. The UK and Europe rely heavily on Middle East jet fuel imports, and officials have been scrambling for backup supply. The EU has already said US-grade jet fuel could be used by European airlines if handled carefully, while UK ministers have insisted there should be no major holiday chaos this summer. Britain has also loosened some flight rules to let airlines pack passengers onto fewer planes when needed.

Not everyone is convinced shortages are the real issue.

Greg Raiff, who runs private jet services company Elevate Jet, says he has not seen a fuel shortage at all. What he has seen is a sharp jump in prices, and plenty of politics wrapped around the story.

He argues that commercial airlines are also using the crisis to cut weaker routes and protect airport slots. With fuel costs way up, some less profitable flights no longer make sense, so airlines are using force majeure to trim schedules while keeping their rights to fly key routes later.

Private aviation, he says, is still moving just fine. Demand is holding up, maybe even rising a bit. The real headache, in his view, is what happens if the war drags into fall. Jet fuel and heating oil come from similar refining processes, and that could start creating a fight over supply.

“If we still have this issue going in the fall,” he said, “I think we’ll begin to have a competition between heating our homes or flying our planes.”

That is the kind of sentence airlines do not want to hear heading into summer.