Iran Warns Americans Will Feel the Cost of a Longer War

As negotiations with Washington remain stalled, Abbas Araghchi is pairing military warnings with an economic message aimed directly at the United States: if the war resumes, American households will continue to pay the price.

The Iranian foreign minister said Tehran is prepared to return to direct conflict with the US if diplomacy fails to produce terms it considers acceptable. At the same time, he argued that the consequences of the war are already rippling through the US economy.

“Americans are told that they must absorb rocketing costs of war of choice on Iran,” Araghchi wrote on X, alongside a chart showing rising yields on US Treasury bonds.

“Put aside gas price hike and stock market bubble, real pain begins when US debt and mortgage rates start to jump. Auto loan delinquencies are already at 30+-year high.”

The message reflects a broader Iranian effort to frame the conflict not only as a military confrontation but as an economic burden for Washington. Since the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a shipping route that normally handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade.

That disruption has fed into higher energy costs and rising inflation in the US, strengthening Tehran’s argument that a prolonged conflict will be felt far beyond the Middle East.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the first round of talks with the US in April, delivered the same message in a more confrontational tone.

“So, you’re funding [Pete] Hegseth the failed TV host at rates unheard of since 2007, so he can cosplay as Secretary of War in our backyard in Hormuz?” Ghalibaf posted on X.

“You know what’s crazier than $39 trillion in debt? Paying a pre-GFC premium to fund a LARP and all you’ll get is a brand new GFC.”

The remarks followed a US Treasury auction of $25bn in 30-year bonds at a five percent yield, the highest level for such debt sales in nearly two decades. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also climbed to their highest level in about a year as markets priced in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated to contain inflation.

One of the central disputes in the negotiations is the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials insist that any agreement must recognise Tehran’s authority to manage traffic through the waterway, a demand rejected by Gulf states and the US, which view the strait as an international shipping route.

Ebrahim Azizi said Tehran has developed “a professional mechanism to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz along a designated route, which will be unveiled soon”.

“In this process, only commercial vessels and parties cooperating with Iran will benefit from it,” he said, adding that ships would be charged fees and countries supporting Washington’s “Project Freedom” would be denied access.

While Iranian officials are highlighting the cost of war for Americans, the domestic impact inside Iran has been even more severe. Official figures show food inflation reached 115 percent in the first Persian calendar month ending in late April. Prices for staples such as cooking oil, rice and chicken have tripled over the past year, while medicine, electronics and cars have also become sharply more expensive.

The economic strain is visible in the currency market. On Saturday, the Iranian rial was trading at roughly 1.8 million to the US dollar on Tehran’s open market, close to record lows reached earlier this month.