Tankers Exit Hormuz as Trump Signals Iran Deal Is Near

Two Chinese-linked oil tankers have moved out of the Strait of Hormuz after spending more than two months waiting in the Gulf, a small but closely watched sign of movement as Washington claims a deal to end the US-Israel war on Iran may be close.

Shipping data from LSEG and Kpler showed that the Chinese-flagged Yuan Gui Yang and the Hong Kong-flagged Ocean Lily left the waterway carrying about 4 million barrels of crude.

South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun also told lawmakers in Seoul that a Korean crude vessel was passing through the strait on Wednesday.

The tankers had been stuck in a region where the war has turned one of the world’s most important energy corridors into a high-risk bottleneck. Yuan Gui Yang loaded 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude on February 27, one day before the US-Israel war on Iran began. Ocean Lily loaded 1 million barrels each of Qatari al-Shaheen and Iraqi Basrah crude between late February and early March.

Their departure came as US President Donald Trump told lawmakers that the war would end “very quickly” and “hopefully … in a very nice manner”.

Vice President JD Vance also sounded cautiously optimistic, saying negotiations between Tehran and Washington are “in a pretty good spot here”.

“There’s a lot of back-and-forth, a lot of good progress is being made, but we’re just going to keep on working at it,” Vance said.

The upbeat tone followed another round of pressure from Trump, who had again threatened military action against Iran. He said Tehran had “two to three days” to make a deal and claimed he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before postponing it.

That has become the basic rhythm of the diplomacy: signals of progress, followed by threats of force, followed by another short window for talks.

Oil markets responded cautiously. Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly fell as low as $110.16 a barrel after the White House comments, but analysts warned that prices are unlikely to return quickly to pre-war levels even if a deal is reached.

“Prices are likely to still exhibit some upside potential even if a deal is concluded, given that supply will likely not return to pre-war levels immediately,” Emril Jamil, a senior oil research analyst at LSEG, told Reuters.

The reason is simple enough: the Strait of Hormuz cannot be switched back on like a light. Insurance, shipping schedules, port access and political risk all take time to normalise after months of disruption.

The economic fallout has already spread well beyond the Gulf. Brent crude hit its highest level since June 2022 last month, and the United Nations has cut its global growth forecast to 2.5 percent this year, down from an estimated 3 percent last year.

In its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects Report, the UN warned that higher energy and food prices are hitting low-income families in developing countries hardest, because those costs take up a larger share of household spending and are rising faster than wages.