EU Exports to US Sink Again – But Tariffs Aren’t the Whole Story

With input from Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, and Eurostat.

Trade between European Union and the US is taking another hit – but the numbers come with a catch.

Exports from the bloc to the United States plunged 26.4% in February, marking the second straight monthly drop of more than a quarter, according to Eurostat. January wasn’t much better, with a 27.8% fall. The result: the EU’s trade surplus with the US has shrunk dramatically.

On paper, it looks like a direct consequence of tariffs rolled out under Donald Trump. But the reality is messier.

A big part of the decline traces back to what happened a year earlier. In early 2025, exporters rushed shipments across the Atlantic ahead of those tariffs kicking in, creating an artificial spike. January and February last year saw exports jump by 16% and 22%. That surge is now distorting the comparison.

Currency moves aren’t helping either. The euro has strengthened nearly 9% against the dollar compared with a year ago, making European goods more expensive in the US.

Look beyond the headline numbers, and the slowdown still shows up – but less dramatically. In the final quarter of 2025, exports to the US were already down about 15%. Some sectors took heavier hits: iron and steel exports dropped close to 40%, while chemicals plunged as much as 80% after earlier front-loading.

There are pockets of resilience. Exports to other markets actually rose about 6%, suggesting European companies are redirecting trade flows where they can. And a few sectors are holding up surprisingly well despite steep tariffs – aluminium exports climbed 9%, copper jumped 15%, and shipbuilding orders surged, with deliveries of large vessels helping lift the numbers.

Still, economists aren’t exactly relaxed. Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer warns the full impact of tariffs takes time to show up – often years. More pressure could be on the way, especially with new US tariffs targeting pharmaceuticals, one of Europe’s biggest export categories. His estimate: a 0.3% hit to eurozone GDP in 2026.

Meanwhile, the broader trade picture is softening. The euro area’s overall surplus dropped to €11.5 billion in February, roughly half of what it was a year earlier. Exports are down, imports are down, and key sectors like chemicals and machinery are losing momentum.

For now, the data tells a mixed story. Trade with the US is clearly cooling, but tariffs are only part of the explanation. Currency swings, shifting demand, and last year’s export rush are all tangled together – making it harder to pin down what comes next.