Russia Shrugs Off UAE Exit, Says OPEC+ Isn’t Cracking – and Prices Won’t Spiral Into War

Reuters, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times contributed to this report.

Russia isn’t panicking over the UAE walking away from OPEC+. If anything, officials are striking a calm, almost blunt tone: the real problem isn’t infighting – it’s a market running short on oil.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that the alliance between major oil producers will keep going despite the United Arab Emirates stepping out. The group, known as OPEC+, still includes heavyweights like Russia and Saudi Arabia, and Moscow has no plans to follow Abu Dhabi out the door.

The bigger headline, according to Novak, is the scale of the crisis hitting the industry.

He described it as the deepest turmoil the oil market has faced in years, driven by a widening gap between supply and demand. Oil simply isn’t moving the way it used to – not with ongoing disruptions tied to the Iran war and shipping routes under pressure.

That’s why talk of a price war doesn’t really hold up right now.

“When there’s a shortage, you don’t get a price war,” Novak said in remarks carried by Russian media.

In other words, producers aren’t fighting over scraps – they’re dealing with a market that can’t get enough barrels in the first place.

The UAE’s exit still matters. It was one of the larger producers in the group, and its departure exposes tensions among Gulf countries at a time when coordination is already under strain. But for now, the fundamentals are overpowering the politics.

Demand is strong. Supply is tight. And until that balance shifts, the usual oil market playbook – including aggressive price battles – stays on hold.

Russia’s position is clear: stick with OPEC+, ride out the turbulence, and focus on a market that’s stretched thin rather than fractured.