Europe’s Jet Fuel Clock Is Ticking — And Airlines May Soon Feel It

AP, Gizmodo, BBC, NPR, Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, contributed to this report.

Europe’s aviation sector is staring at a countdown. According to the head of the International Energy Agency, the region may have just six weeks of jet fuel left if the current supply crunch drags on.

Fatih Birol didn’t sugarcoat it. Speaking from Paris, he warned that flight cancellations could start “soon” if oil shipments remain choked off by the ongoing Iran war, which has effectively shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

That narrow waterway normally handles nearly a fifth of global oil trade. Now, it’s become a bottleneck with global consequences. Tankers are stuck. Supplies are stranded. And the ripple effects are hitting aviation faster than almost any other sector.

Jet fuel is particularly vulnerable. It makes up only a small slice of refined oil output, but airlines depend on it heavily — both operationally and financially. Prices have already surged, and carriers are feeling the squeeze. Some are cutting routes. Others are raising fares or tacking on extra fees just to stay afloat.

The cracks are starting to show. Dutch airline KLM has already trimmed flights out of Amsterdam, citing rising fuel costs. Budget carrier easyJet flagged tens of millions in added expenses. Across Europe, airlines are quietly adjusting schedules, trying to stretch supply without triggering widespread disruption.

For now, there’s no outright shortage. Not yet. But the warning signs are stacking up.

Europe has long relied on the Middle East for roughly three-quarters of its jet fuel imports. With that pipeline disrupted, countries are scrambling to plug the gap — pulling in shipments from the US, Nigeria, and elsewhere. It helps, but not enough. Even under optimistic scenarios, replacement supplies may only cover about half of what’s been lost.

That’s where the risk kicks in. If inventories drop too low heading into the busy summer travel season, some airports could run dry. Smaller hubs would likely feel it first, while major airports get priority.

And even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow, relief won’t come quickly. Oil fields need restarting. Refineries need recalibrating. Tankers need weeks to reach their destinations. The system doesn’t bounce back overnight.

The bigger picture looks worse. Birol called this the most severe energy crisis he’s seen, warning that the longer it drags on, the deeper the economic damage. Higher fuel costs feed directly into inflation — not just for flights, but for electricity, transport, and everyday goods.

The pain won’t be evenly spread. Developing economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to take the first hit as prices climb and supplies tighten. Still, wealthier countries won’t escape unscathed.

“No country is immune,” Birol said.

There’s also a longer shadow hanging over the crisis. More than 80 major energy facilities in the Persian Gulf have been damaged during the conflict, some severely. Even with a peace deal, restoring production could take months — possibly years.

Meanwhile, governments and industries are being forced to rethink energy security on the fly. Emergency stockpiles have already been tapped. Airlines are reworking strategies. Analysts say the shock could accelerate shifts toward alternative energy, including nuclear power.

But that’s a longer-term story. Right now, the focus is much simpler: keeping planes in the air.

And with the clock ticking on fuel supplies, that’s getting harder by the day.